viernes, marzo 09, 2007

La fuente del saber

Seguro que hoy se viene alguna de los chiflados de viernes, pero antes, me animo a tirar un dato ya anecdrotico sobre el tema de la semana: dejo unos parrafos de la wiki . No que deje nada nuevo a lo que ya se dijo, pero me parecio interesante.

Se trata de la interpretacion de la evidencia internacional con respecto a los terminos de intercambio de la que se hablo en los comentarios de la entrada anterior (pero tambien dijeron lo suyo Homoeconomicus y el abuelo). Me parece que se llegan a concluciones que estan en la misma linea de lo que se hablo aca.

"Though out of intellectual fashion these days, some recent research has found empirical support for the Singer-Prebisch thesis. José Antonio Ocampo, the under-secretary-general in charge of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nationsand the leading scholar in this field, has noted that the deterioration in the barter term of trade for primary products is discontinuous rather than gradual, with sharp deteriorations in the 1920s and 1980s followed by periods of stability."

Justamente es del trabajo de Ocampo tambien se hablo aca. Tambien dicen algo con respecto a esto de meter todo en dos bolsas: Agro vs. industria.

"The Singer-Prebisch thesis has lost some of its relevance in the last 30 years, as exports of simple manufactures have overtaken exports of primary commodities in most developing countries outside of Africa. For this reason, much of the recent research inspired by the Singer-Prebisch thesis focuses less on the relative prices of primary products and manufactured goods, and more on the relative prices of simple manufactures produced by developing countries and complex manufactures produced by advanced economies."

En fin, gente que le gusta las predicciones y las acomodan un poco. Por ultimo, me pregunto si Larry no sera parte de los editores de la wiki. Miren la quotation que le sacaron a Singer:

In 1998, Singer argued that the thesis he pioneered has joined the mainstream:
"One indication of this is that the Prebisch-Singer Thesis (PST) is now incorporated, both implicitly and explicitly, in the advice given by the Bretton Woods Institutions to developing countries. They are warned to be prudent even when export prices are temporarily favourable and to guard against currency overvaluation and Duch Disease, with all the unfavourable impact on the rest of the economy and all the dangers of macroeconomic instability which a sudden boom in a major export sector could imply. They are warned to remember that the outlook for commodity prices is not favourable and that windfalls will tend to be temporary, with the subsequent relapse likely to be greater than the temporary windfall. This is exactly the warning which the PST would give."

Ni a proposito. Queda claro que no son la misma cosa (sacas la misma conclusion, pero no son lo mismo), pero de todas formas, el muchacho nombra a los holandeses.

3 comentarios:

Larry dijo...

Wikipedia, que invento, todo lo sabe, a todo responde...

Buen post para cerrar ideas, buen post para darnos cuenta el nivel que tuvo la “discusión”.

Sin duda, excelente.

Muy bien chiflados y seguidores, Muy bien.

Shemp dijo...

Muy bueno Moe.

Postee algo mas como nota al pie de pagina para el debate.

Buen debate el de este semana.

Mati dijo...

Shemp usted vive en el extranjero?? Me animaria a decir a que en un pais de habla no hispana. Simplemente para corroborar una deduccion. Muchas gracias
PD: es culpa de mi inmensa curiosidad y de haber leido a Sherlock Holmes...